GREENSBORO - According to Pew Research Center, Mitt Romney is ahead of President Barack Obama among likely voters, but last month Pew Research reported Obama had the lead. What affects the quick change in polls?
Elon University Poll Director, Kenneth Fernandez answered the following questions:
- How do poll swings work?
- How much of this current poll swing is from the debate? How can one event, or moment factor into poll results?
- One poll looks at registered voters and another looks at likely voters. How does this make a difference in polls?
Fernandez said campaign events have measurable effects and each poll varies. The margin of error is another factor to take into consideration.
When comparing registered voters to likely voters in polls, Fernandez said the results often report registered voters weigh more democrat, while likely voters weigh more republican. He also noted that this is not a perfect science, or measurement.
WFMY News 2